Hybrid-electric aircraft can expand U.S. regional air travel by tenfold, Electra says
The hybrid-electric aircraft in development by Electra could more cheaply and conveniently complete trips up to 450 kilometers than today’s cars and helicopters, according to a market forecast the Virginia company released in late May. A shift to this type of aircraft, the company estimates, would add thousands of new regional flight routes in the U.S.
Electra published its “Direct Aviation Market Outlook” the same day its two-seat Goldfinch demonstrator flew before a crowd on the waterfront in Charleston, South Carolina. The company is now constructing an iron bird test rig for its planned production aircraft, the nine-seat EL9, and told me it is on track to begin flight testing in 2027.
The U.S. currently has 487 regional flight routes that cover up to 425 km, but at least 6,000 routes of the same distance could be added, according to Electra’s market forecast. Some of these routes would address new demand, while others would replace trips currently made in cars.
“Aviation has made our world smaller and more convenient, but we haven’t done a good job connecting our regions. If anything, we’ve lost more and more service over time as we’ve concentrated routes through fewer and fewer hubs,” Diana Siegel, Electra’s vice president of commercial programs, told me in an interview.
Electra has demonstrated the Goldfinch can take off and land in under 45 meters, meaning it doesn’t need a full airport runway and could provide regional service closer to passengers’ origins and final destinations. This direct aviation model, along with lower costs due to the hybrid propulsion, could create demand for up to 16,000 EL9s in the next decade, the company predicted.
Electra’s forecast is based on location-based data from cellular phone usage, connected vehicle data, credit card usage, and other sources “to capture how people travel” especially to and from airports, according to the methodology section of the report.
The forecast identified a few routes where regional air service could shorten trip times. For instance, a flight from Washington, D.C. to New York City could save more than two hours compared to traveling by car or taking a passenger airliner. Similarly, flying from Miami to Orlando could be 2.5 hours faster than driving at rush hour, and three hours faster than flying through a major airport when factoring in the time required to pass through Transportation Security Administration security and board the aircraft.
But not all advanced air mobility market observers are as bullish on the prospects for regional service.
“My concern is market outlooks like this often seem to assume that the number of regional or municipal airports we have today correlates to the existence of demand or routes,” industry analyst Sergio Cecutta told me. “There is certainly a demand out there, but I question if that demand might be overstated a little here.”
Cecutta, whose company SMG Consulting produces the AAM Reality Index of electric aircraft rankings, said positioning aircraft like Electra’s closer to its intended origin or destination can shorten overall trip times. However, he noted this “direct aviation” model will likely still require another vehicle to complete the first or last leg of the journey, such as a rental car or rideshare.
Cecutta said he expects self-driving and highly automated cars to also change the way Americans travel, introducing another uncertain variable for local and regional travel.
Underlying Electra’s report are assumptions the company has made, including that EL9 service would be vastly cheaper than an executive jet flying a regional route, one-third the cost of a helicopter and much quieter.
The forecast focused on civil uses, although Electra also envisions military customers for the EL9. The company has flown the Goldfinch at military installations to demonstrate how a short-takeoff-and-landing design could provide access to “austere or remote environments,” with cost savings from the hybrid-electric propulsion.
Siegel said the company intends for the EL9 to enter commercial service with companies including helicopter operator Bristow Group and regional airline Surf Air — not necessarily replacing their current fossil fuel aircraft, but complementing it. Those companies offer service for up to nine passengers on regional routes, which doesn’t require TSA screening.
Electra is also one of nine aircraft manufacturers participating in FAA’s eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, or eIPP. The company will be involved in demonstrations in multiple states, including Florida, where Siegel said Electra is “already planning very specific routes” the Goldfinch can fly.
“We may even carry a passenger or two under our FAA experimental and market survey permissions,” she said.
