Air transportation sustainability is more than environmental
By Amanda Simpson|February/March 2025
Coming out of the pandemic, industry leaders in the air transportation sector embraced the idea that their products and services must be “sustainable.” This was widely interpreted as a call to reduce or even eliminate the industry’s carbon footprint.
This is an understandable sentiment. Webster’s defines sustainable as “using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged.” We certainly wouldn’t want to deplete the atmosphere, but as we set our minds to preventing permanent damage, we must also consider the financial stability and growth of individual companies in the sector. In addition to reductions in carbon emissions, which the industry is working hard to make, other aspects of the industry’s sustainability should be considered, because not doing so could make an irreplaceable service for the public falter.
Worth remembering is that air transportation is responsible for a small percent of CO2 emissions. In 2019, the last year before the pandemic, the sector and other kinds of aviation contributed just 3% of the carbon dioxide released that year, according to “CO2 Emissions from air transport,” a paper published by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, an international policy standards group. Environmental standards and policies must take this relative contribution into account, as the industry seeks to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. That is an admirable goal, but global market conditions, economics, and public acceptance and engagement will determine if it is realizable in that time frame.
We tend to take flying for granted today, as though transportation preferences are permanently fixed. History tells us they are not. Privately operated passenger trains once crisscrossed the United States. Then, on New Year’s Day in 1914, some 3,000 people gathered in St. Petersburg, Florida, and watched an “airboat” take off and skim over the surface of Tampa Bay. This aircraft carried the world’s first airline passenger to the Hillsborough River in 23 minutes, a trip that normally would have taken hours, according to an account by the International Air Transportation Association. At first, this futuristic mode of transportation was expensive, but the talents of engineers across many fields made flying more efficient and affordable. Privately operated passenger train services in the United States withered and perished. These were replaced by Amtrak and local municipality-operated trains services.
Now, however, the cost curve is in danger of being reversed. Fuel costs are rising. Expensive environmental reviews are required for airport and spaceport expansions. Local jurisdictions can place limits on noise and air traffic growth. Tariffs and taxes are constant hurdles. Environmental sustainability will come at a cost that will be passed along to the consumer. These resulting higher costs could create opportunities for other, yet-unestablished forms of transportation to erode or replace our current air transportation system. Consumers might still prefer flying for speed and comfort but feel as though they have no choice but to shift, given the higher costs. Put simply, today’s average passenger might no longer be able to afford to fly to the extent they can now. That would erode the sustainability and stability of the air transportation industry.
Another pillar of sustainability is customer acceptance, which adds up to social acceptance. Challenges could lie ahead for that pillar related to the new, innovative services now in development or in the early stages of introduction. Advanced air mobility developers are working toward certifying electric aircraft for urban and regional transportation. The first drone delivery services have been inaugurated. The return of supersonic commercial travel could be coming.
As exciting as these developments are, they come with risks, including property damage, negative impacts to public lands and waters, and potentially fatal accidents, any of which could sour the currently tenuous public acceptance. A study published in the journal Progress in Aerospace Sciences in 2023, “Public perception of advanced aviation technologies: A review and roadmap to acceptance,” found that “missions that support the common good are viewed more favourably than commercial uses such as package delivery or air taxi services.” This suggests there will be little public tolerance for commercial accidents that harm property or people.
Recovering from mistakes is hard to do. Consider the Boeing 737 MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346. Even after FAA cleared the MAX planes to return to service, many travelers continued to avoid traveling on these aircraft due to what they perceived as a personal risk to their safety. According to Morning Consult, there remains a tarnished perception of the quality of Boeing products, and this perception was further impacted by the issues associated with the Starliner capsule’s crewed mission to the International Space Station. Economic Letter’s “Guilt through association: Reputational contagion and the Boeing 737-MAX disasters” details how Boeing’s previous reputation as an industry safety and quality leader evaporated within a matter of several years.
While this negative perception has not extended into a loss of consumer trust of the entire air transportation industry, it does demonstrate the fragility of that trust. Trust and social acceptance extend beyond safety to the bold economic and access promises made by those developing the new kinds of services. The public continues to ask: Where is the flying car I was promised? When is that drone arriving with the online purchase I made a few minutes ago? When will lunar mining revolutionize manufacturing and make my life more affordable? When will I get to travel to Mars?
But perhaps the most important facet of sustainability is the workforce. Without motivated, trained, qualified and imaginative people to keep an industry vibrant, it will wither and fade away. Today, careers in air transportation compete with the wealth of the information technology industry, the steady growth of the health care and medical devices market, the excitement of cybersecurity, and the burgeoning artificial intelligence industry that lure away not only college students but also youth who at an early age begin to set their sights on their future. Decades ago, aerospace was the hot career, but according to Federal Reserve Economic Data, aerospace employment plummeted at the end of the Cold War in the 1990s. The latest evidence suggests that while the percentage of engineering majors has remained steady since then, this is not enough to keep up with the demands for workers in the aerospace sector, including air transportation. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a 6% employment demand increase over the next decade, faster than the average for all other occupations. This demand must be met if the industry is to remain viable into the future.
Those of us who have spent decades in the aerospace ecosystem can help by sharing the unique satisfaction that comes from reaching a project milestone, proving that a concept can meet technical objectives and watching the product of our labors ascend into the sky. It’s not fast and it’s not easy, but it has unprecedented rewards.
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