Looking forward by looking back
By Ben Iannotta|September 2024
Like many of you, Looking Back is one of my favorite sections of the magazine for the history it reveals and the thoughts it sparks about what could lie ahead. I did not know that 100 years ago on Sept. 15 an unoccupied U.S. Navy floatplane took off from the Potomac River at Dahlgren, Virginia, and was flown by radio control for 40 minutes, including landing without incident. The entry triggered me to read up, and it turns out the U.S. had actually been scooped by the British, who “had successfully enjoyed a similar accomplishment just 12 days earlier,” according to a 2010 U.S. Navy article. Still, “Holy Lawrence Sperry!” A drone ground control station in 1924. Sadly, Sperry, the famous aircraft control innovator, crashed in the English Channel and died before these historic flights.
One lesson I drew from this history is the power of human advocacy. If Sperry had lived, one has to wonder if it would have taken 70 more years for remotely flown drones to be viewed as more than targets for testing anti-aircraft weapons. Drones were first flown in warfare by the CIA over Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1993 and 1994. Then, a year before the Sept. 11 terror attacks, a Predator drone over Afghanistan “saw a security detail around a tall man in a white robe” at terrorist leader Osama bin Laden’s compound, according to a gripping account in the “9/11 Commission Report” published in 2004. Drones became famous during the ensuing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq for the fear they incited among enemies, but “the drone war” also became infamous among some lawyers and activists for the legal questions that were raised and the civilian and friendly fire casualties that came with the undeniable military effects.
Another lesson I drew, in light of our feature story on the Europa Clipper mission [page 30], is that even when there is strong advocacy, the game of advancing science and technology may always be a long one, though ideally not 70 years. For Clipper, the timeline stands at 15 years, from early discussions to Phase A preplanning to construction and, finally this year, preparations for the Clipper’s launch, possibly in October. As I write this, the mission price tag stands at $5 billion. That’s already about half the cost of the Webb telescope and its mission. Now, scientists are anxiously awaiting the results of a last-minute study ordered after the revelation that some of the Clipper’s electronics might be vulnerable to Europa’s high-radiation environment.
Historically speaking, Webb managers absorbed understandable criticism for the development errors that occurred during their watch, but they nevertheless took the time to fix things. They were, in a word, tenacious. I think we’d all agree that their tenacity paid off. If a difficult choice lies ahead related to Clipper, perhaps that history can be a guide.
