Finishing strong

October 2024

From now through early 2031, NASA will spend nearly twice the cost of the Webb telescope on its contribution to the International Space Station. If the final chapter of the station has indeed begun, it needs to be a good one, rich with research and  scientific breakthroughs. Otherwise, history might not judge the vast expenditures on ISS very kindly.

Non-science-related justifications have often been made, given the lack of a blockbuster breakthrough in medicine or another field: The station is helping to ignite economic activity in space. It’s teaching us how to live and work there too. There are geopolitical benefits to international partners working together up there.

These probably won’t be enough to justify the almost incalculable expenditures to build and operate ISS over two and half decades. I found estimates ranging up to $200 billion when all partner contributions are tallied. Sadly, on the geopolitical front, having Americans and Russians working together in space has had absolutely no moderating effect on Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

So, that leaves it largely to science and technology to recoup the investment. Gauging the benefits of ISS compared to its costs is a complicated proposition. I wouldn’t dare attempt it here. What seems safe to say is that major breakthroughs in medicine and other areas are still needed to push the cost-benefit equation into “no brainer” territory.

Six years could be enough time to do it. For example, LambdaVision, a Connecticut biotechnology company, sent its latest artificial retina experiment to ISS in January as the next step in its effort to cure age-related macular degeneration and retinitis pigmentosa. In the area of space manufacturing, researchers on ISS this year manufactured 12 kilometers of optical fiber made from ZBLAN glass, a material that’s clearer than silica but that Earth’s gravity prevents from being made in large, uniform quantities. These are just a couple promising technologies that could pay off in the years ahead.

Of course, perhaps it’s not realistic to demand “blockbuster” breakthroughs from ISS research. After all, Alzheimer’s disease, most cancers, Parkinson’s disease and many others remain incurable after decades and hundreds of millions of dollars of research on Earth. Perhaps many small, important discoveries are how NASA will justify this last $18 billion expenditure.

Put simply, if I were pre-writing an obituary for ISS, I would save a few paragraphs. The story is not over.